Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $136.9K in 24h volume, and $91.3K in liquidity.

Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.

This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.