crypto
🔥 Hot⚡ Tight
56%
+16.5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
24h Vol
$281.5K
Liquidity
$31.7K
Spread
0%
7/1/2026
View marketCrypto
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $771.4 in 24h volume, and $30.3K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$771.4
Liquidity
$30.3K
This market asks whether the Chinese government will explicitly say that people in China can legally buy Bitcoin with yuan inside the country before the end of 2026. It is worth watching because China has long been one of the most important policy centers for crypto, and even a formal announcement would be a major shift from its current stance.
The event is narrowly defined: it resolves Yes only if the government of the People's Republic of China publicly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with renminbi from داخل China by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market does not require the policy to be implemented successfully, only that the PRC explicitly announces the change. If that announcement never happens, or if the message is ambiguous or only concerns Bitcoin-related activity outside mainland China, the market resolves No.
China matters here because it has historically taken a restrictive approach to crypto trading and related financial activity, so any official reversal would be a notable policy change. Traders are pricing the chance that Beijing could soften, clarify, or simply reframe its position on Bitcoin purchases before the deadline. The uncertainty is not just about crypto sentiment; it is about whether Chinese authorities will move from restriction to explicit permission in a way that meets the market’s wording.
The price would be most affected by any official PRC statement, regulation, or policy notice that clearly addresses whether mainland Chinese residents may buy Bitcoin with yuan. A public clarification from a major Chinese regulator, central-government body, or state-linked announcement could matter if it uses direct language about legality and domestic access. By contrast, news about overseas Bitcoin products, Hong Kong activity, mining, or vague references to blockchain would matter less unless it clearly confirms the specific right described in the contract.
Related markets
+16.5%
24h Vol
$281.5K
Liquidity
$31.7K
Spread
0%
7/1/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check the exact wording of any PRC announcement and whether it explicitly allows Chinese citizens to buy Bitcoin with renminbi inside China. The market says the primary source of truth is official PRC information, with credible reporting used only as a secondary check, so the key question is whether the statement is direct enough to satisfy that standard. The deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and any late-breaking statement should be read carefully for scope, geography, and whether it covers Bitcoin itself rather than broader crypto or offshore access.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $771.4 in 24h volume, and $30.3K in liquidity.
Track live crypto prediction markets covering Bitcoin price targets, ETF approvals, regulation changes, and major blockchain events across the prediction market ecosystem.
Yes
3.1%
No
96.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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