economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $4.8K in 24h volume, and $1.9M in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$4.8K
Liquidity
$1.9M
This market asks whether Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy will ultimately secure the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nomination and accept it. Because the outcome depends on the party’s formal nomination process, the key issue is not just who runs, but who the Democratic Party officially chooses at the end of it.
The named figure here is Chris Murphy, a sitting U.S. senator who would need to become the Democratic nominee for president in 2028. Under the market rules, it resolves “Yes” only if Murphy wins and accepts the Democratic nomination for U.S. president; otherwise it resolves “No.” The deadline is the 2028 election cycle, with resolution tied to the party’s official nomination outcome, and the rules specifically say that replacing the Democratic nominee before Election Day does not change the result.
There is uncertainty because presidential nomination races can change over time as candidates enter, exit, or lose support before party delegates formally decide. Murphy is a recognizable national political figure, but a Senate profile alone does not guarantee a presidential nomination, so readers are effectively watching whether he becomes a serious contender and then wins the party’s official process. The market is pricing the gap between a plausible candidacy and the much narrower outcome of actually being nominated and accepting.
Price movement would be driven by developments that affect Murphy’s standing in the Democratic primary field, especially whether he declares, builds institutional backing, raises money, or earns endorsements from major party figures. Official campaign announcements, delegate rules, debate qualification standards, and changes in the field from other prominent Democratic contenders could all matter because they reshape the path to the nomination. Since the resolution depends on the official nominee, any party convention outcome, withdrawal, or replacement scenario that affects who is formally nominated is especially important.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the Democratic Party’s official nomination process, since the market says the source of truth is a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. The most important details are whether Murphy becomes an announced candidate, whether he remains in the race through the convention, and whether the party officially records him as its nominee who accepts the nomination. One ambiguity to check is that the rules ignore later replacement of a nominee before Election Day, so the decisive event is the formal nomination itself, not the eventual general-election ballot lineup.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $4.8K in 24h volume, and $1.9M in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.9%
No
99.2%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
-3%
24h Vol
$1.5M
Liquidity
$574.6K
Spread
1%
6/15/2026
View market
+2.1%
24h Vol
$1.8M
Liquidity
$549.6K
Spread
0%
11/7/2028
View market
--
24h Vol
$703.8K
Liquidity
$185.3K
Spread
0%
6/7/2026
View market
+0.1%
24h Vol
$245.6K
Liquidity
$618K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$93.7K
Liquidity
$359.5K
Spread
0%
4/30/2027
View market