
+4.9%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$68K
Liquidity
$142.8K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by August 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $738.5 in 24h volume, and $6.1K in liquidity.
Probability
4%
24h Volume
$738.5
Liquidity
$6.1K
This market asks whether Elon Musk will post the word “Hyperliquid” on X before the end of August 31, 2026, Eastern Time. Because the resolution depends on a specific account and a specific term, the key question is not broad sentiment around Musk or crypto, but whether that exact text appears in one of his qualifying posts.
The event is tied to the X account @elonmusk and resolves Yes only if that account posts the listed term, “Hyperliquid,” by 11:59 PM ET on the date named in the title. The market counts main-feed posts, quote posts, and reply posts from the account, but not reposts or quoted posts from others. Any capitalization or plural/possessive form counts, while misspellings or altered spellings do not; the term also has to appear clearly in text, including text shown in a still image, if it is spelled out in full.
This market is focused on a very specific public signal from a highly watched account. Elon Musk’s posts can move attention across technology, crypto, and trading communities, and “Hyperliquid” is the name of a crypto-related trading platform, so even a single mention could matter to readers following that ecosystem. The uncertainty is straightforward: the market is pricing whether Musk will mention that exact word before the deadline, and there is no requirement that the post be favorable, substantive, or repeated.
The price can move quickly if Musk posts on X in any qualifying format that includes “Hyperliquid,” including a reply or quote post that contains the word in the body of the post. It can also move if he appears likely to reference the platform in a visible text-only image, since the rules allow clearly spelled-out text in still images. By contrast, reposts, indirect references, misspellings, or stylized variants that do not clearly spell the term are less likely to count and may leave the market unchanged until there is a definitive post.
Related markets

+4.9%
24h Vol
$68K
Liquidity
$142.8K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 4% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check the exact resolution deadline, which is August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and the rule that only posts from @elonmusk count. The source of truth is the account’s X timeline, including replies and quote posts made by the account itself, not screenshots elsewhere or reposts by other users. The main ambiguity risk is whether a post clearly spells “Hyperliquid” in text and whether the format qualifies under the market rules, so the exact wording and post type matter more than the surrounding context.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by August 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $738.5 in 24h volume, and $6.1K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
3.7%
No
96.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Sep 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if https://x.com/elonmusk posts the listed term by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in main feed posts, quote posts, and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of the listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: H@perl1quid, for "Hyperliquid") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: Hyperliquidd or Hyperliqid, for "Hyperliquid"), will not count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the listed term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). Posts published from https://x.com/elonmusk during a period in which the account is verifiably compromised or hacked, as confirmed by Elon Musk or X, do not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: https://x.com/elonmusk Please note, only the https://x.com/elonmusk verified X account counts for this market. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 4%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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