
+9.8%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$144.6K
Liquidity
$144.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 15%, $885.4 in 24h volume, and $1.1K in liquidity.
Probability
15%
24h Volume
$885.4
Liquidity
$1.1K
This market asks whether Elon Musk will post the exact term “Hyperliquid” on X before the end of 2026. It is a narrow wording check on a single account, so the key issue is not whether Musk discusses crypto broadly, but whether that specific word appears in a qualifying post.
The resolution looks only at posts from https://x.com/elonmusk and counts main-feed posts, quote posts, and replies made by that account before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The term can appear in plain text or in an image as long as it is clearly spelled out in full, and common capitalization or plural/possessive forms still count. Hyperliquid is a crypto trading brand, so the market is effectively asking whether Musk references that name on his own account within the deadline.
Musk’s posts can move attention quickly, especially when they mention specific companies, platforms, or crypto-related names. Because the rule is about one exact term on one account, there is uncertainty over both content and format: he could mention the topic indirectly, use a screenshot, or avoid the word entirely. The market is pricing that disagreement over whether a future post will contain the exact qualifying term.
The price would move if Musk posts about Hyperliquid directly, even in a reply or quote post, because those formats count here. It could also move if he publishes an image with the word clearly spelled out, or if he uses a plural or possessive form that still satisfies the rule. By contrast, reposts, vague references to the platform without the word itself, or misspellings and stylized substitutions would not meet the resolution standard.
The current market price implies roughly a 15% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

+9.8%
24h Vol
$144.6K
Liquidity
$144.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketWatch the official X account linked in the rules, not screenshots or third-party summaries, because only posts from that account can resolve the market. The main ambiguity to check is whether the word “Hyperliquid” appears plainly enough to count, especially if it is embedded in an image or formatted in a way that may be hard to read. The deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and the final call should follow the market’s wording exactly, including its treatment of replies, quote posts, and visual text.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 15%, $885.4 in 24h volume, and $1.1K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
15%
No
85%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 1, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if https://x.com/elonmusk posts the listed term by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in main feed posts, quote posts, and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of the listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: H@perl1quid, for "Hyperliquid") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: Hyperliquidd or Hyperliqid, for "Hyperliquid"), will not count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the listed term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). Posts published from https://x.com/elonmusk during a period in which the account is verifiably compromised or hacked, as confirmed by Elon Musk or X, do not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: https://x.com/elonmusk Please note, only the https://x.com/elonmusk verified X account counts for this market. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 15%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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