Will Elon post "Iran" or "Iranian" on X this week?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Elon post "Iran" or "Iranian" on X this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 41%, and $37.1 in liquidity.

Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.

This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 22, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @elonmusk posts the listed term between June 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count. Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.) Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count. Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: @elonmusk Please note, only the @elonmusk verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.