economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $5.8M in 24h volume, and $237.7K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$5.8M
Liquidity
$237.7K
This market asks whether Gustavo Bolívar will be the winner of Colombia’s 2026 presidential election. It is tied to one of the country’s most important national votes, with a possible runoff if no one clears the 50% threshold in the first round.
The question is simple: will Gustavo Bolívar be the candidate who ultimately wins the 2026 Colombian presidency? Colombia’s first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, and if no candidate receives more than half of the valid votes, a second round would be held on June 21, 2026. This market includes that runoff, and it resolves to the listed candidate who is officially declared the winner; if the result is not known by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to “Other.”
Presidential races in Colombia can change quickly because the first-round vote may not produce an outright winner, forcing a head-to-head runoff that can reshape alliances and voter behavior. Bolívar is the named figure in this market, so the core uncertainty is not just whether he remains prominent, but whether he can secure enough support across the full election process to finish first. Readers should care because the contract is keyed to the final official winner, not just early polling or first-round performance.
The price can move if Bolívar formally enters, withdraws, or is ruled out, and it can also shift with official campaign developments that change his path to a majority or runoff victory. Endorsements, alliance-building, party coalitions, debates, and strong or weak first-round results would matter because this market depends on the candidate who ultimately wins, including a possible second round. Any official election administration announcement that clarifies candidacy status, vote counting, or the final result could also move the market.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe key source of truth is Colombia’s National Civil Registry, the Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil, because the rules say the market resolves by official results if there is any ambiguity. Before resolution, readers should check whether the contest is decided in one round or moves to the June 21 runoff, and whether Gustavo Bolívar is still the named candidate in the final certified result. The deadline also matters: if the election outcome is still unresolved by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other.”
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $5.8M in 24h volume, and $237.7K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 21, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
-3%
24h Vol
$1.5M
Liquidity
$574.6K
Spread
1%
6/15/2026
View market
+2.1%
24h Vol
$1.8M
Liquidity
$549.6K
Spread
0%
11/7/2028
View market
--
24h Vol
$703.8K
Liquidity
$185.3K
Spread
0%
6/7/2026
View market
+0.1%
24h Vol
$243.3K
Liquidity
$613.1K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$93.7K
Liquidity
$358K
Spread
0%
4/30/2027
View market