
+4.9%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$68K
Liquidity
$142.8K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 22%, $36.2 in 24h volume, and $268.3 in liquidity.
Probability
22%
24h Volume
$36.2
Liquidity
$268.3
This market asks whether Epic Games’ private valuation, as tracked by Nasdaq Private Market’s daily NPM Price, will reach at least $15 billion at any point before the June 30, 2026 cutoff. It is worth watching because the result depends on an official pricing series, not rumor or commentary, and the rules spell out what happens if Epic later goes public or if NPM stops publishing data.
Epic Games is the video game and software company behind Fortnite and Unreal Engine, and this market is focused on its private-market valuation rather than its public share price. The key trigger is whether the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC hits or exceeds the listed high threshold on any trading day from market creation through June 30, 2026. If Epic completes an IPO or direct listing before the deadline, the market can also use the implied valuation from the official offering price and any subsequent public market capitalization through the end date.
Private-company valuations can move on limited trading data, financing activity, or changes in how investors price a name like Epic Games ahead of a possible public listing. Readers may care because Epic is a widely followed company with a valuation that can shift meaningfully when official private-market marks are published, and this market is testing whether those marks ever reach a specific high watermark. The disagreement here is not about Epic’s business story in general, but about whether the official valuation series will cross the $15 billion threshold before the deadline.
A new NPM Price print at or above $15 billion would be the clearest move toward a Yes outcome, since the market resolves on that official valuation data. News of an IPO or direct listing could also matter because the rules explicitly allow the official offer price and later public market capitalization to count if Epic goes public before June 30, 2026. On the other hand, if the published NPM values stay below the threshold or NPM stops covering the relevant period without a qualifying public listing, the market is more likely to resolve No under the stated rules.
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+4.9%
24h Vol
$68K
Liquidity
$142.8K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 22% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The main source of truth is Nasdaq Private Market’s published NPM Price, which is updated for trading days only and is released at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. Readers should check whether any published NPM valuation for Epic Games reaches $15 billion between market creation and June 30, 2026, and also watch for any IPO or direct listing announcement because that changes how the rule is applied. The deadline details matter here: if all business-day data is not available by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, the market can remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026, and if NPM ceases publishing, the market falls back to the available data and any applicable public-market valuation.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 22%, $36.2 in 24h volume, and $268.3 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
21.5%
No
78.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Epic Games' private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 22%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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