
+9.8%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$144.6K
Liquidity
$144.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $10B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 30%, $47.4 in 24h volume, and $14 in liquidity.
Probability
30%
24h Volume
$47.4
Liquidity
$14
This market asks whether Epic Games’ private-market valuation will reach at least $10 billion at any point before the June 30, 2026 deadline. Epic Games is a major video game company, best known for Fortnite and the Unreal Engine, so its valuation is watched as a signal of investor appetite for large private tech businesses.
The key reference here is the NPM Price published by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC for Epic Games. If that reported private valuation hits or exceeds $10 billion on any date from market creation through June 30, 2026, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise it resolves to No. The rules also explain what happens if Epic goes public or if NPM stops publishing before the period ends, so the final outcome can depend on later official pricing or public-market data.
Epic Games is not a publicly traded company, so its value is usually inferred from private-market transactions and official secondary-market pricing rather than a daily stock price. That creates uncertainty about whether the company’s reported valuation will cross a specific threshold during the window, especially since private valuations can move on financing terms, investor demand, or a public listing event. The market is pricing disagreement over whether Epic’s reported value will ever print at or above the $10 billion line before the deadline.
The biggest price movers are new NPM valuation updates, because the market resolves from those published figures on trading days. A fresh funding round, a change in private-market pricing, or an IPO/direct listing price could also matter under the rules, since the resolution process can use those official figures if Epic transitions to the public markets. Any update that brings the reported valuation close to the $10 billion threshold would be especially relevant.
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+9.8%
24h Vol
$144.6K
Liquidity
$144.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 30% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the exact NPM Price postings, not just informal reports about Epic’s business, because the rules tie resolution to that specific data source. The timing also matters: NPM publishes for trading days only, updates once daily at 1:00 PM ET the following calendar day, and the market may stay open longer if the data for the full period has not been published by July 1, 2026. If Epic were to IPO or directly list, the official offer price and subsequent public-market capitalization would become part of the resolution framework, so those filings and exchange data would be important to verify.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $10B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 30%, $47.4 in 24h volume, and $14 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
29.5%
No
70.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Epic Games' private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 30%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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