
+9.8%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$144.6K
Liquidity
$144.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $11.5B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 26%, $101.1 in 24h volume, and $57.7 in liquidity.
Probability
26%
24h Volume
$101.1
Liquidity
$57.7
This market asks whether Epic Games’ private valuation will reach at least $11.5 billion by June 30, 2026. It is worth watching because the answer depends on an official private-market pricing source, not on rumors or informal estimates, so the event can move only when new valuation data is published or Epic goes public.
The key issue is Epic Games’ valuation as reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), which publishes the company’s NPM Price on trading days. The market resolves to Yes if any NPM Price from the creation date through June 30, 2026 reaches or exceeds $11.5 billion, and to No otherwise; if Epic completes an IPO or direct listing, the rules also allow the official offering price and subsequent public market capitalization to count. The market’s end date is July 1, 2026 for resolution handling, with a possible extension to July 4 if NPM has not yet published all relevant business dates.
Epic Games is a private company, so its valuation is not continuously visible the way a public stock price is. That leaves room for disagreement about whether its private-market pricing will ever touch the $11.5 billion threshold during the specified window, especially if no IPO, direct listing, or fresh NPM update arrives before then. Readers care because the rule is tied to a specific data source and a specific cutoff, which makes the outcome depend on valuation reports and listing events rather than broad business sentiment.
The biggest price movers are new NPM Price publications, since those are the direct trigger for resolution. An IPO or direct listing would be even more important, because the rules say the official offer price and the company’s public market cap can be used after that point. With the market showing a recent decline and a relatively wide bid-ask spread, traders appear to be pricing in meaningful uncertainty about whether Epic will reach the threshold in time.
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+9.8%
24h Vol
$144.6K
Liquidity
$144.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 26% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market closes, the main thing to verify is the exact NPM Price for Epic Games on each trading day through June 30, 2026, since that is the primary source of truth. Readers should also watch whether Epic files for, completes, or prices an IPO or direct listing, because that changes what data can be used in resolution. If NPM stops publishing or lags in posting dates, the rules allow the market to stay open longer and then resolve on whatever data is available, so the publication timing matters as much as the valuation itself.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $11.5B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 26%, $101.1 in 24h volume, and $57.7 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
26%
No
74%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Epic Games' private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 26%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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