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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$538.7K
Liquidity
$260.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $350B and $400B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $1.5K in 24h volume, and $5.6K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$5.6K
This market asks whether Fannie Mae will debut on the public market with an end-of-day valuation between $350 billion and $400 billion. That is a very specific threshold for a company whose shares have not yet begun normal trading, so the result will hinge on both the IPO pricing and where the stock finishes on day one. Because Fannie Mae is such a large and politically sensitive housing-finance name, even small changes in the listing terms can matter here.
The event is Fannie Mae’s first day of trading after an IPO, and the key test is the company’s market capitalization at the closing price on that day. Market cap here means the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the official closing share price, using the primary exchange’s listing page as the main source. If Fannie Mae does not complete an IPO by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the no-IPO outcome instead.
Fannie Mae is not a typical newly public company; it is a long-established government-sponsored enterprise that has been central to U.S. mortgage finance and has spent years under federal conservatorship. That makes any IPO a major event, but the exact first-day valuation is still uncertain because it depends on the final share count, pricing, and investor demand on the opening session. The market is essentially pricing whether the debut valuation lands in this fairly narrow $50 billion band around the middle of the expected range.
The biggest price movers are the IPO structure and the opening-day trading range: the final offer price, the number of shares sold, and any changes in the disclosed float will directly affect market cap. Official filings, exchange notices, and any listing-page updates around the first trading session can also shift expectations about the closing valuation. If trading is interrupted, the rules say the official closing price of the abbreviated session matters; if no official close is published that day, the next official close becomes the reference point.
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24h Vol
$538.7K
Liquidity
$260.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check whether an IPO actually occurs before the June 30, 2026 deadline, since that alone determines the fallback outcome if it does not. On IPO day, the key source of truth is the primary exchange’s official listing page, and the important figure is the official closing price, not intraday highs or media estimates. It is also worth noting the tie rule: if the final market cap lands exactly on a bracket boundary, the higher range wins, which can matter at the edges of this threshold.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $350B and $400B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $1.5K in 24h volume, and $5.6K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.3%
No
99.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Fannie Mae’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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