
+0.1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$473.8K
Liquidity
$212.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $22.5K in 24h volume, and $28.3K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$22.5K
Liquidity
$28.3K
This market is asking whether SpaceX would debut as a very large public company, with a closing-day market value between $1.0 trillion and $1.5 trillion if it ever lists shares. That matters because IPO-day valuation is one of the clearest public signals of how investors are pricing a company’s growth, profits, and future expectations on day one.
The event is about SpaceX’s market capitalization at the close of its first trading day on a public exchange. The market resolves to the bracket from $1.0T to $1.5T only if the IPO happens and the official closing price on that first day produces a valuation in that range; if there is no SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves instead to “No IPO before 2028.” The rules also say that if the value lands exactly on a bracket boundary, the higher bracket wins, and the official primary exchange listing page is the main source for the closing figure.
SpaceX is one of the most closely watched private companies in the market, so any eventual public debut would draw attention to how the company is priced relative to its scale and prospects. The uncertainty here is twofold: whether an IPO happens at all by the deadline, and, if it does, whether the first-day close lands in this very high valuation band. Traders are effectively disagreeing about both the timing of a listing and the size of the premium the market might assign on day one.
The biggest price driver is whether SpaceX actually files, prices, and lists before the 2027 deadline, since no IPO means the market resolves to the “No IPO before 2028” outcome. If an offering is announced, the offering size, share price range, and demand for the deal would be the key clues for whether a trillion-dollar-plus closing valuation is realistic. For this specific bracket, the first-day closing price matters more than headlines alone, because the final outcome depends on the official close on the first trading day.
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+0.1%
24h Vol
$473.8K
Liquidity
$212.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch for any official IPO filing, pricing notice, and first-day closing information from the primary exchange, since those are the items the rules rely on. The most important detail to verify is the exact first-day closing market capitalization, including how many shares are outstanding and what closing price is used. If trading is interrupted, the market uses the official closing price of the abbreviated session, and if no official close is published that day, it shifts to the next day with an official close and treats that as the first trading day for resolution purposes.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $22.5K in 24h volume, and $28.3K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
2.4%
No
97.7%
Polymarket has not provided a clear end date for this market yet.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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