economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $123.9K in 24h volume, and $271.3K in liquidity.
Probability
4%
24h Volume
$123.9K
Liquidity
$271.3K
This market asks whether Fernando Haddad will be the official winner of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. It is a straightforward but important political question because Brazil’s presidency is decided in a nationwide vote that can require a second round, and the market will settle on the final winner named by the official election result.
Fernando Haddad is the named candidate in this market, and the event is Brazil’s presidential election scheduled for October 4, 2026. The question is whether Haddad will be the candidate listed as the winner after all votes are counted, including any second round if no one wins outright in the first round. If the final result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" instead of Yes.
Brazil’s presidential race is uncertain because winning can depend on campaign dynamics, coalition building, voter turnout, and whether the contest goes to a runoff. Haddad is a nationally known figure, so this market is really about whether he can translate that recognition into a formal victory under Brazil’s election rules. Readers watching it are looking at the gap between one specific candidate’s chances and the broader field of possible outcomes.
Official statements from Haddad, rival candidates, and major parties can shift expectations, especially if they signal alliances or withdrawals that affect a first-round or runoff path. Polling trends, candidate eligibility rulings, and election-related court decisions may also matter because they can change who is actually on the ballot and who is likely to win. As the election approaches, credible reporting about the official count and the presence or absence of a runoff will be especially relevant.
The current market price implies roughly a 4% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe key source of truth is the official Brazilian election result, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE), if there is any ambiguity. Before resolution, readers should verify whether the election has produced a final winner, whether a second round was needed, and whether the candidate named in the market is the person officially declared elected. The deadline in the market matters too: if the outcome is still unresolved by June 30, 2027, the market does not wait indefinitely and instead resolves to "Other".
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $123.9K in 24h volume, and $271.3K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
3.8%
No
96.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 4, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 4%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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