finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
7%
+1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$58K
Liquidity
$159.4K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 42%, $4.8K in 24h volume, and $90.3 in liquidity.
Probability
42%
24h Volume
$4.8K
Liquidity
$90.3
This market asks whether Frank Ocean will officially release a new album during 2026. It is worth watching because Frank Ocean is one of the most closely followed artists in modern pop and R&B, and his release timing has historically been uncertain enough to keep fans and traders guessing.
The question is narrowly defined: will Frank Ocean make a new album officially available for download or streaming between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT. The artist must release an album, not a live recording, and the platform rules exclude most re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, greatest-hits packages, or other altered versions of older material unless at least half the tracks are previously unreleased in any official format. Resolution will rely first on official streaming and download services, with Spotify checked before Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer if there is any ambiguity about how a release is labeled.
Frank Ocean’s catalog has a long gap between major projects, so any rumor, surprise drop, or public release pattern can change expectations quickly. The market is pricing a straightforward but unresolved question: whether 2026 brings a qualifying new album, or whether the year passes without one. Because the rules are strict about what counts as an album release, even a project that looks substantial on a platform may still fail to qualify if it is mostly older material or a reissue.
An official album listing on Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, or Deezer would be the clearest price-moving development, especially if it is presented as a new studio album. Announcements from Frank Ocean, his label, or a verified official account could also shift expectations if they clearly point to a 2026 release window. By contrast, a merch tie-in, playlist update, single, live recording, or deluxe/reissue-style upload would matter less unless it satisfies the market’s 50% newly unreleased-tracks rule.
Related markets
+1%
24h Vol
$58K
Liquidity
$159.4K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 42% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is whether any release is officially available for streaming or download before the deadline and whether it is actually labeled as a new album rather than a repackaging of old songs. Readers should check the exact release title, track list, and platform labeling on the listed source platforms, since ambiguous releases may need to be judged by the order of precedence in the rules. The deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, so a release on January 1, 2027 would not count even if it is announced earlier.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 42%, $4.8K in 24h volume, and $90.3 in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
41.5%
No
58.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including recordings of live events) by the resolution date. Album releases including non-original tracks such as live-versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums, or similar non original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 42%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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