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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$43K
Liquidity
$193K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 22%, $5.7K in 24h volume, and $4.6K in liquidity.
Probability
22%
24h Volume
$5.7K
Liquidity
$4.6K
This market is about General Mills’ reported organic net sales growth for its fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, and whether that figure lands in a narrow band between 0% and 1.5%. Because the outcome is tied to the company’s own earnings materials, the key question is not market opinion but what General Mills officially reports and how it frames the number.
General Mills is the packaged-food company behind brands such as Cheerios, Häagen-Dazs, and Pillsbury, and this market centers on its Q4 fiscal 2026 organic net sales growth. The contract resolves off the company’s official earnings materials for that quarter, including the press release, investor presentation, or regulatory filing, with webcast recordings or transcripts allowed if needed. The date to watch is August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, because if the company has not released the relevant quarterly materials by then, the market resolves to the lowest bracket.
Organic net sales growth is a closely watched operating metric because it strips out some of the effects of acquisitions, divestitures, and currency changes and gives a cleaner view of underlying demand. For General Mills, investors and observers may disagree on whether pricing, volume, and mix will be strong enough to keep growth in a modest positive range. This market is pricing that uncertainty around the company’s reported quarter, not a broader view of the stock or the food sector.
The biggest move will come when General Mills publishes its Q4 2026 earnings materials and states the organic net sales growth figure, since the contract resolves on the most precise official number it provides. If the company reports a range instead of a single figure, the midpoint is used, which can shift the outcome if the midpoint lands near a bracket boundary. A result exactly on a cutoff goes to the higher bracket, so a report near 0% or 1.5% deserves close attention.
Related markets

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24h Vol
$43K
Liquidity
$193K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 22% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the deadline, readers should check the company’s official earnings release, investor presentation, and any regulatory filing first, because those are the primary sources of truth for resolution. If the metric is omitted from the official materials, the market falls to the lowest bracket, so omission matters as much as the reported number. The main ambiguity risk is whether General Mills presents the figure as a single value or a range, and which version is the most numerically precise one in the official materials.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 22%, $5.7K in 24h volume, and $4.6K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
21.5%
No
78.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 24, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to General Mills' announced organic net sales growth for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is General Mills' official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 22%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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