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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$43K
Liquidity
$193K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -3% and -1.5%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 25%, $856.6 in 24h volume, and $2.2K in liquidity.
Probability
25%
24h Volume
$856.6
Liquidity
$2.2K
This market is about one specific number in General Mills’ fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings materials: organic net sales growth. The question is whether the company reports that metric between -3% and -1.5%, which would indicate a modest year-over-year decline in underlying sales after stripping out items like acquisitions, divestitures, and currency effects.
General Mills is the packaged-food company behind brands such as Cheerios, Nature Valley, and Häagen-Dazs, and its quarterly earnings release is the official source for this market. The outcome hinges on the company’s reported Q4 fiscal 2026 organic net sales growth, using the most precise figure in official earnings materials such as the press release, investor presentation, or regulatory filing. If the company reports a range, the midpoint is used; if the exact metric is missing, the rules send the market to the lowest bracket.
Organic net sales growth is a closely watched measure because it helps readers see whether a food company is actually selling more or less on a comparable basis, rather than being carried by pricing, acquisitions, or accounting changes. For General Mills, that makes the question especially relevant to investors and observers trying to gauge consumer demand, pricing power, and the health of its core brands. The market is pricing disagreement over whether the company’s quarter will land in a narrow negative band or outside it.
The biggest price moves will usually come from General Mills’ earnings release, investor presentation, or 10-K/10-Q materials if they include the quarter’s organic net sales growth figure. A report that lands squarely in the -3% to -1.5% range would support a Yes outcome, while a figure above -1.5% or below -3% would push it to No. If the company gives a range, the midpoint matters, and if the metric is omitted entirely from official materials, the rules say the market resolves to the lowest bracket.
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24h Vol
$43K
Liquidity
$193K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 25% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Watch for the company’s official Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings date and any accompanying press release, presentation, or filing, since those documents are the resolution source. The market’s deadline is August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, but it can resolve earlier once the relevant official materials are published. Readers should pay close attention to whether the company reports a single number or a range, because the midpoint rule and the “higher bracket on exact boundary” rule can affect the final outcome.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between -3% and -1.5%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 25%, $856.6 in 24h volume, and $2.2K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
24.5%
No
75.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 24, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to General Mills' announced organic net sales growth for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is General Mills' official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 25%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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