economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 61%, $1.6K in 24h volume, and $308.8 in liquidity.
Probability
61%
24h Volume
$1.6K
Liquidity
$308.8
This market asks whether the U.S. average price of ground beef will reach $8.00 per pound at any point in 2026. It is tied to an official series from the St. Louis Fed, which republishes Bureau of Labor Statistics pricing data, so the key question is not what shoppers see in one store but what the national monthly index shows.
The contract resolves to Yes if the St. Louis Fed’s series for “Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average” reaches or exceeds $8.000 in any month of 2026. If no 2026 monthly value hits that threshold, it resolves No. The end date is set for 2026-12-31, but the rules also say the market can resolve earlier when the relevant St. Louis Fed chart is updated with a qualifying month.
Ground beef is a widely watched grocery item, and $8 per pound is a clear round-number threshold that makes the market easy to follow. The uncertainty comes from how food prices move over time with cattle costs, processing, transportation, and seasonal inflation, all of which can push the national average up or down. People watching this market are essentially asking whether the official 2026 data will print at or above a level that would stand out in everyday supermarket pricing.
The most direct price mover is a new monthly CPI-based update from the St. Louis Fed showing the ground beef series at or above $8.000 for any 2026 month, since that would settle the contract Yes immediately. New monthly readings that stay below the threshold, especially if they come in comfortably under $8.00, would support No. Because the resolution uses the St. Louis Fed chart and its third-decimal precision, even a value very close to the line matters, so traders will be watching each publication for a first qualifying month.
The current market price implies roughly a 61% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketReaders should check the St. Louis Fed’s FRED page for this exact series and confirm the monthly value shown for each 2026 release. The important detail is the resolution rule: the market uses the published figure to three decimal places, and a value of 8.000 or higher counts as Yes. The description also says that if January 2027 CPI data are due but 2026 data are still incomplete, the market will resolve using whatever 2026 readings are available by that point, so the timing of official publication matters as much as the price itself.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 61%, $1.6K in 24h volume, and $308.8 in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
61%
No
39%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 61%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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