economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will GTA 6 cost $100+?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $1.1K in 24h volume, and $10.6K in liquidity.
Probability
10%
24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$10.6K
This market asks whether Grand Theft Auto VI will launch with a standard edition price of at least $100 in the United States. It is worth watching because GTA 6 is one of the most anticipated game releases in years, and the launch price would be a closely watched signal for how publishers price blockbuster console games.
The question here is narrow: will the standard edition of GTA 6 cost $100.00 or more on the first official U.S. release day on Xbox or PlayStation. The market resolves from the pre-tax listing on the Microsoft Store or PlayStation Store, and if the two stores differ, the lower price is what counts. The deadline is February 28, 2027, and if the game is not released by then, or the release slips beyond that date, the market resolves to No.
GTA 6 is a major release from Rockstar Games, so even small pricing decisions can draw attention well beyond the gaming world. The uncertainty is not about whether the game will be popular, but about whether publishers will test a much higher launch price for a standard console title than many players expect. That disagreement is what the market is pricing: a premium blockbuster price versus a more conventional launch price.
The biggest price movers will be any official store listing for GTA 6 on Microsoft or PlayStation, especially if it appears with a standard edition price near the $100 mark. Confirmed preorder pages, edition breakdowns, or credible reporting describing the launch price could also shift expectations, though the store listing itself is the key reference point. Any delay that pushes release beyond February 28, 2027 would force a No outcome under the market rules.
The current market price implies roughly a 10% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketWatch the first official U.S. store listing for the standard edition, and make sure it is the base game with no DLC or bundled extras. The important details are the pre-tax U.S. price, the Xbox or PlayStation storefront, and which edition is being sold as the standard version. Because the rules say the lower of the two store prices controls if they differ, readers should check both listings rather than just one. If there is no release by the deadline, the market resolves to No automatically.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will GTA 6 cost $100+?. The market currently shows a live probability of 10%, $1.1K in 24h volume, and $10.6K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
9.5%
No
90.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Feb 28, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard edition of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) launches at $100.00 or more. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the pre-tax launch price in USD of the standard edition of GTA 6 on Xbox or PlayStation as listed on the Microsoft Store or PlayStation Store on the first official day of its release in the United States. If the price differs between the Microsoft and PlayStation stores, this market will resolve according to the lower price. This market will resolve based on the lowest price version that includes the full standard game with no DLC, etc. If GTA 6 is not released or release is otherwise delayed beyond February 28, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the Microsoft Store/PlayStation Store, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 10%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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