Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?. The market currently shows a live probability of 9%, $48.6K in 24h volume, and $41.5K in liquidity.

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This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.