economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $62K in 24h volume, and $63K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$62K
Liquidity
$63K
This market asks whether Itamar Ben Gvir will be the next person officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel after the next Knesset election. Ben Gvir is a prominent Israeli political figure, and the question matters because the prize here is not just being a leading politician, but becoming the state’s formally appointed head of government. The market stays open until the next election is settled and a new prime minister is sworn in, or until the stated cutoff at the end of 2027.
The resolution is tied to who is next to be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 parliamentary election, currently scheduled for October 27, 2026. If an early election is called, that earlier vote becomes the relevant one instead. Interim or caretaker prime ministers do not count; the named person must be formally sworn in to resolve this market as “Yes.”
There is a big gap between being a known national politician and actually becoming prime minister in Israel’s parliamentary system, where coalition math, party alliances, and post-election negotiations can all change the outcome. Itamar Ben Gvir is a high-profile and polarizing figure, so the market is really pricing the chance that he could move from influence inside government to the top office itself. The “No” side reflects the much more common path: another leader is chosen, or no qualifying Ben Gvir swearing-in happens before the deadline.
Price can move when there are official signs about election timing, coalition talks, cabinet reshuffles, or party alliances that affect who could command a governing majority. Statements from Israeli political leaders, election results, and formal government announcements matter most because the market resolves from official appointment and swearing-in, not speculation about who might be preferred. Any change in Ben Gvir’s role, his party’s leverage, or the identity of the likely coalition leader could also shift expectations.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official election calendar, any decision to call an early election, and the Government of Israel’s announcement of who is formally appointed and sworn in as prime minister. The key ambiguity to keep in mind is that a caretaker premier does not satisfy the rules, so only a fully sworn-in successor counts. If no qualifying swearing-in occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other,” so that deadline is the final backstop to verify.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $62K in 24h volume, and $63K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
1.2%
No
98.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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