economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $76.4K in 24h volume, and $353.5K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$76.4K
Liquidity
$353.5K
This market asks whether Jair Bolsonaro will be the winner of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. It is worth watching because Bolsonaro is one of the country’s most prominent and polarizing political figures, and Brazil’s presidential contests are often shaped by coalition politics and runoff dynamics.
The question is simple: will Bolsonaro be the candidate officially recorded as the winner of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, scheduled for October 4, 2026? The market includes any second round, so the outcome depends on who ultimately wins the presidency after Brazil’s election process is complete. If the result is still unknown by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other."
This market exists because a Brazilian presidential race can be complicated by legal eligibility issues, coalition shifts, and the possibility of a runoff if no candidate wins outright in the first round. Bolsonaro is a nationally known figure, but whether he can secure the presidency in 2026 depends on the candidates, the political environment, and the official election outcome. The market is pricing disagreement over whether he will be the final winner, not just whether he remains a major contender.
Official statements about Bolsonaro’s candidacy, court rulings, or election-related eligibility questions could move the market, especially if they affect whether he can appear on the ballot or remain politically viable. Polling shifts, alliances among major Brazilian parties, and the shape of the first-round vote could also matter because Brazil’s presidential elections often go to a second round. Any credible reporting or official updates from the race that change expectations about the eventual winner can affect the price.
The current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe key source of truth is the official result from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE), which the market says will control if there is any ambiguity. Readers should check whether the winner is decided in the first round or after a runoff, since the market includes the full election outcome. The deadline also matters: if the result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other," so the final resolution window is longer than election day itself.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $76.4K in 24h volume, and $353.5K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.7%
No
99.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 4, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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