economy
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $969.9 in 24h volume, and $815.6K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$969.9
Liquidity
$815.6K
This market asks whether James Talarico will end up winning and accepting the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nomination. It is a long-dated political market, so the question is less about today’s headlines than about whether Talarico becomes the party’s final nominee by the time the 2028 convention process is settled.
James Talarico is a Texas Democratic politician, and this market is focused on the specific outcome of him being chosen as the Democratic Party’s nominee for U.S. president in 2028 and accepting that nomination. The resolution window runs through Election Day 2028, with the market set to resolve against any outcome where someone else becomes the nominee, even if there is a replacement earlier in the process. The rules say the source of truth is a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, so the relevant question is the party’s formal nomination decision rather than media speculation or informal campaign buzz.
The 2028 Democratic nomination is open-ended this far in advance, and many possible candidates can emerge, fade, or re-enter the conversation over time. Talarico’s chances will depend on whether he builds enough national support, donor backing, and delegate strength to survive a crowded primary field and win the party’s formal endorsement. Readers care because nomination markets are really about who can turn early visibility into actual party control, not just who gets attention.
Price moves would likely come from concrete campaign milestones: an announcement or launch, major endorsements from elected Democrats, fundraising reports, debate performances, primary or caucus results, and changes in whether party leaders treat him as a serious contender. Draft rules, delegate math, or official signals from the Democratic Party about the nomination process could also matter if they improve or weaken his path to the convention. Since the market resolves on official party sources, any event that changes the formal nominee list or the acceptance of the nomination is especially important.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is the official Democratic nominee for 2028 and whether that person accepts the nomination under the party’s formal process. Because the rules specify a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, readers should look to the party’s convention result, official nominee announcements, and any resolution language that clarifies how replacements would be treated. The main ambiguity risk is not polling or speculation, but whether Talarico is actually the named, accepted nominee when the party’s process is complete by the 2028 deadline.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $969.9 in 24h volume, and $815.6K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
2.2%
No
97.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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