economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $23.6K in 24h volume, and $706.7K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$23.6K
Liquidity
$706.7K
This market asks whether Colorado Governor Jared Polis will ultimately win and accept the Democratic Party’s 2028 nomination for U.S. president. It is a long-running political question tied to how the Democratic primary field, party rules, and nomination process evolve over the next election cycle.
The event is not about who polls best or who becomes a front-runner; it resolves only if Jared Polis is the person officially chosen and accepted as the Democratic nominee for president in 2028. The market’s deadline is tied to the 2028 election cycle, with resolution expected by election day unless the official party nomination is settled earlier in a way that clearly answers the question. The rules also say that if another Democrat replaces the nominee before election day, that replacement does not change this market’s outcome unless Polis himself is the nominee and accepts it.
Jared Polis is a sitting governor and a nationally known Democrat, which makes him one of the many names that can be discussed in a future presidential field even before campaigning formally begins. The uncertainty here is whether he will rise from that broader possibility to the actual Democratic nomination, which depends on delegate support, convention outcomes, and whether he remains an active contender. Readers following this market are essentially watching a specific candidate’s path through a highly competitive and rule-driven nomination process.
Official announcements are likely to matter most: whether Polis declares a presidential run, mounts a serious campaign, wins early delegate support, or withdraws before the nomination fight is decided. Changes in the party’s nomination landscape, such as endorsements from major Democratic figures, convention rules, or the emergence of stronger alternatives, could also shift expectations. Because the market resolves on the nominee who wins and accepts the nomination, any official Democratic Party action that clarifies the final nominee will have the biggest effect.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key sources of truth are official Democratic Party statements, the convention result, and any formal acceptance of the nomination by the named candidate. Readers should verify whether Jared Polis is the person who is officially nominated, and not rely on informal speculation, draft lists, or media narratives alone. The market text makes one unusual point especially important: if the Democratic nominee is replaced before election day, that replacement does not automatically settle this market in Polis’s favor or against him unless the official nominee status itself is clear under the rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $23.6K in 24h volume, and $706.7K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.8%
No
99.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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