economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $36.9K in 24h volume, and $2.6M in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$36.9K
Liquidity
$2.6M
This market asks whether Jasmine Crockett will become the Democratic Party’s official 2028 nominee for U.S. president and accept that nomination. It is a long-dated political market tied to a major party decision, so the main issue is not just whether Crockett remains prominent, but whether she ultimately emerges as the party’s chosen standard-bearer.
Jasmine Crockett is a Democratic member of Congress from Texas, and this market is about the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, not the general election itself. The market resolves “Yes” only if she wins the Democratic nomination and accepts it; if someone else is nominated, or if she does not become the nominee, it resolves “No.” The stated end date is November 7, 2028, and the rules say that any later replacement of the Democratic nominee before Election Day does not change the outcome once the nomination question is settled.
The uncertainty here is about a very early and highly contingent presidential nomination contest. Even for a well-known political figure, becoming a party nominee depends on future fundraising, endorsements, debates, campaign organization, and the wider shape of the Democratic field over the next several years. Readers may care because a nomination would signal that Crockett has moved from congressional visibility to the center of national party politics.
Price moves will usually come from developments that change Crockett’s standing as a plausible nominee: an announcement that she is running, signs of major support from elected officials or party insiders, early-state organizing, or shifting attention in the broader Democratic field. Formal campaign filings, debate qualifications, endorsement waves, and rule changes affecting nomination mechanics can all matter because this market is specifically about the official nomination outcome, not general speculation about future prominence.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the consensus of official Democratic Party sources, as the market rules specify. Readers should watch for the party’s formal nomination process, the official nominee announcement, and Crockett’s acceptance of the nomination, since both pieces are required for a “Yes” resolution. The biggest ambiguity risk is confusing a vice-presidential role, an endorsement, or a temporary replacement of another nominee with actually winning the Democratic presidential nomination herself.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $36.9K in 24h volume, and $2.6M in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.7%
No
99.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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