Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?

Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $11.3K in 24h volume, and $161.9K in liquidity.

Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.

This market is currently listed with an end date of Apr 30, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).