economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $4.7K in 24h volume, and $1.5M in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$4.7K
Liquidity
$1.5M
This market asks whether John Fetterman will be the Democratic Party’s 2028 nominee for U.S. president and ultimately accept that nomination. It is worth watching because the outcome depends on an internal party decision that will not be settled until the nomination process is complete, and the market’s rules are tied to official Democratic sources rather than pundit speculation.
The event centers on John Fetterman, the U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, and the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The market resolves to Yes only if he wins the Democratic nomination and accepts it; if someone else becomes the nominee, or if Fetterman does not accept, it resolves No. The deadline shown is election day in 2028, but the key resolution point is the official nomination decision, which can come earlier than the general election.
There is uncertainty because presidential nominations are decided through a party process, not by a single election, and names can rise or fall quickly as campaigns, endorsements, debates, and delegate support develop. Fetterman is a recognizable national political figure, but whether he will ever be the Democratic standard-bearer is still an open question, which is exactly the kind of uncertainty this market is pricing. The market also reflects the possibility that a candidate can be discussed seriously without ever becoming the party’s final choice.
Official signals from the Democratic Party, such as delegate commitments, convention decisions, ballot-access steps, or a formal nomination announcement, would be the most important price movers. So would Fetterman’s own actions: launching a campaign, declining to run, suspending a campaign, or publicly accepting a nomination if one is offered. Because the rules say the source of truth is a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, any clear party process update is more important than speculation or informal commentary.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch for the official nominee designation from Democratic Party sources and any statement showing whether Fetterman accepted or declined the nomination. The market description is specific that a replacement nominee before election day does not change the resolution, so the decisive issue is whether Fetterman himself is named and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. If the party changes its nominee, or if the nomination process is contested, those details matter only insofar as they affect the official final outcome. The main ambiguity to verify is the exact point at which the party’s official sources treat the nomination as final.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $4.7K in 24h volume, and $1.5M in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.9%
No
99.2%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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