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0%
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $89.1K in 24h volume, and $2M in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$89.1K
Liquidity
$2M
This market asks whether John Thune will be the Republican Party’s 2028 nominee for U.S. president and accept that nomination. It is centered on the party’s formal nomination process, not on who is most discussed in early campaign chatter, so the key issue is whether Thune actually becomes the official Republican standard-bearer in 2028.
John Thune is a longtime Republican senator from South Dakota and, as of now, a major figure in Senate leadership. For this market to resolve “Yes,” he would need to win the Republican presidential nomination for 2028 and accept it; if someone else wins the nomination, or if Thune does not end up as the accepted nominee, the market resolves “No.” The deadline on the page is tied to the 2028 election cycle, with final resolution expected no later than election day unless the nomination outcome is known earlier through the party’s official process.
The uncertainty here is not just whether Thune remains influential in Republican politics, but whether he would ever move from congressional leadership into a presidential nomination fight. Republican nomination contests can change quickly as endorsements, debate performances, fundraising, and primary results reshape the field, so a sitting senator with national visibility can still be a long shot or a serious contender depending on the path he takes. The market is pricing a specific question about the party’s eventual formal choice, not simply whether Thune will be a prominent Republican in 2028.
The price would move most on official signs that Thune is entering, exiting, or gaining momentum in the nomination race: a declared campaign, major endorsements, a leadership role that boosts or limits his presidential prospects, or a delegate/primary result that makes him a viable contender. It could also shift if the Republican field narrows around other names, if Thune publicly says he will not run, or if party officials signal a clear nominee before election day. Because the rules say a replacement nominee does not change resolution, readers should pay attention to who is formally nominated and accepts the nomination, not just who is discussed as a fallback or substitute.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The resolution source is a consensus of official Republican Party sources, so the most important thing to verify is the party’s final nomination record and any accepted nominee announcement. Readers should watch for the exact wording of the Republican convention outcome, official party statements, and whether John Thune is named as the accepted nominee for president rather than merely considered or briefly nominated. The market also includes an important rule that a replacement nominee before election day does not alter the outcome, so the decisive question is who the party officially settles on, not whether the campaign lineup changes along the way.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $89.1K in 24h volume, and $2M in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.8%
No
99.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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