economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $30.7 in 24h volume, and $119.5K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$30.7
Liquidity
$119.5K
This market asks whether Jorge Nieto will be the winner of Peru’s 2026 presidential election. Peru’s presidential contests can go to a second round if no candidate wins outright, so the question is not just who leads in the first round, but who ultimately ends up certified as president after any runoff.
The event is the next Peruvian presidential election, scheduled for April 12, 2026, with the possibility of a second round if needed. The market resolves to the candidate who is ultimately listed as the winner of that election, and it will use the official result from Peru’s election authorities if there is any ambiguity. If the winner is not definitively known by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other."
Jorge Nieto is the named candidate in this market, so the key uncertainty is whether he can actually emerge as the certified winner of a nationwide presidential race. Peruvian presidential elections are often shaped by coalition politics, turnout, and runoff dynamics, which means a candidate’s chances can change a lot between the first round and the final official result.
Price will move most on signs that Jorge Nieto is formally in the race, performs well in polling, builds alliances, or advances into a second round. It can also move if major competitors consolidate support, if candidacy or ballot-access issues change the field, or if official election administration updates affect the timing or clarity of results. Because the market resolves on the eventual winner, developments that improve or weaken Nieto’s runoff path matter more than first-round headlines alone.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketReaders should watch the official candidate list, the April 12, 2026 election date, and any runoff schedule that follows if no one wins outright. The resolution standard is the official result reported by Peru’s ONPE and JNE, so those are the sources that matter most if media reports conflict or the count is disputed. It is also important to check whether the result becomes definitive before the October 31, 2026 cutoff, since unresolved ambiguity after that point would force an "Other" outcome.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $30.7 in 24h volume, and $119.5K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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