economy
🔥 Hot⚡ Tight
81%
+9.7%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$144K
Liquidity
$145.6K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.55B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 97%, $1.5K in 24h volume, and $19.1K in liquidity.
Probability
97%
24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$19.1K
This market asks whether JPMorgan Chase will report second-quarter investment banking fees above $2.55 billion in its official earnings materials. It is a focused read on a single line item from one of the largest U.S. banks, so the main thing to watch is the exact figure JPMorgan publishes for Q2 rather than headlines about deal activity in general.
The event is tied to JP Morgan, the banking company commonly referred to as JPMorgan or JPM, and specifically to its investment banking fees for the upcoming second fiscal quarter. Resolution depends on the number shown in the company’s official earnings materials, such as its press release, investor presentation, or regulatory filing, with earnings webcast transcripts used only if the metric is not reported there. The market ends on the Q2 reporting cycle, and if the company does not release the relevant materials by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves No.
Investment banking fees can move around quarter to quarter based on advisory work, debt and equity underwriting, and the timing of large transactions. JPMorgan is a useful bellwether because its results are often watched as a snapshot of broader capital-markets activity, but the exact fee figure can still surprise relative to expectations. The market is pricing a narrow threshold, so even a modest miss or beat versus $2.55 billion changes the outcome.
The biggest price movers are JPMorgan’s own quarterly disclosures, especially whether the reported investment banking fees come in above or below the threshold in the official materials. A reported range, if one appears, will be judged by its midpoint, and any later revision will not count, so the first published version matters most. Because the market is close to resolution based on a single disclosed number, small differences in wording or where the metric appears in the earnings package can also matter.
Related markets
+9.7%
24h Vol
$144K
Liquidity
$145.6K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 97% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Read the company’s official Q2 earnings release and related materials carefully, because the resolution source is JPMorgan’s own published reporting rather than analyst estimates or media summaries. Check that the figure is the specific investment banking fees line item for the correct quarter, and remember that only the most numerically precise version counts. If the number is omitted, or if the company never publishes the relevant earnings materials by the stated deadline, the market resolves No.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.55B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 97%, $1.5K in 24h volume, and $19.1K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
97.1%
No
2.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 14, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if JP Morgan's investment banking fees for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is JP Morgan's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 97%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
--
24h Vol
$92.3K
Liquidity
$243.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$47.5K
Liquidity
$74K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View market
0%
24h Vol
$43.2K
Liquidity
$17.5K
Spread
1%
6/30/2026
View market
+1%
24h Vol
$17K
Liquidity
$11.3K
Spread
1%
Live
View market+1.2%
24h Vol
$20.2K
Liquidity
$48.8K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market