economy
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0%
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 8%, $32.5K in 24h volume, and $314.1K in liquidity.
Probability
8%
24h Volume
$32.5K
Liquidity
$314.1K
This market asks whether Kamala Harris will become and accept the Democratic Party’s official nominee for U.S. president in 2028. It is tied to a specific party process, not to general popularity or whether she remains a prominent Democratic figure in the meantime. Because nominations are decided through party rules and official announcements, the key uncertainty is what the Democratic Party formally does by election season.
The event is about the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, with Kamala Harris named as the individual in question. For a “Yes” result, she must win the party’s nomination and accept it; if someone else is nominated, or if she does not accept the nomination, the market resolves “No.” The resolution date is aligned with the 2028 election cycle, and the description says the source of truth will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
There is room for disagreement because a nomination depends on future campaign dynamics, delegate support, party rules, and whether Harris chooses to run and secure enough backing. Even well-known national figures are not guaranteed a party nomination years in advance, especially in a field that could change through primaries, endorsements, and convention outcomes. The market is essentially pricing how likely it is that Harris ends up as the party’s chosen nominee by the end of the process.
Price can move if Harris formally signals an interest in running, builds an early campaign structure, or wins endorsements from major Democratic leaders. It can also move if other likely contenders emerge, if party officials clarify nomination rules or the delegate process, or if Harris indicates she will not pursue the race. Because the market resolves on official party sources, any development affecting who the Democratic Party names and accepts as its nominee is more important than informal speculation.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 8% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch official Democratic Party announcements, convention results, delegate counts, and any published nomination rules or procedural changes that could affect who is recognized as the nominee. The description is especially important here: it says a replacement of the Democratic nominee before election day does not change the resolution, so the question is specifically whether Harris wins and accepts the nomination as defined by party sources. If the process becomes contested or ambiguous, the deciding factor will be the consensus of official Democratic Party sources rather than outside commentary.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 8%, $32.5K in 24h volume, and $314.1K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
7.7%
No
92.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 8%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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