economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 63%, $506.2K in 24h volume, and $171.8K in liquidity.
Probability
63%
24h Volume
$506.2K
Liquidity
$171.8K
This market asks whether Keiko Fujimori will win Peru’s 2026 presidential election. It is tied to a major national vote scheduled for April 12, 2026, and it matters because Peru’s presidency is decided through a system that can involve a second round if no candidate clears the first-round threshold.
The question is simple: will Keiko Fujimori be the candidate who ends up winning the next Peruvian presidential election? The market explicitly includes any potential runoff, so it will not settle on the first-round vote alone if a second round is required. The resolution point is tied to the official election outcome, with the market falling back to "Other" if the result is not definitively known by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Keiko Fujimori is one of the best-known figures in modern Peruvian politics, and her name alone makes this race especially watchable. Peru’s election rules and the possibility of a runoff create real uncertainty about who will ultimately prevail, even before the field is fully settled. The market is effectively pricing the chance that Fujimori can convert that visibility into an outright election win, or whether another candidate will emerge from the first round or runoff ahead of her.
Anything that changes Fujimori’s path to the runoff or her standing in a final round can move this market. That includes official announcements about who is running, coalition building, candidate disqualifications, major shifts in first-round polling, or changes in the likely second-round matchup. Because the market resolves on the elected winner, developments that affect the runoff arithmetic may matter just as much as first-round momentum.
The current market price implies roughly a 63% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe most important items to verify are the official Peruvian election results and whether a second round is needed, since the market includes both rounds. The stated source of truth is the ONPE and, if there is any ambiguity, the JNE; those official results control over unofficial reporting. Readers should also keep the October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET fallback date in mind, because if the winner is still not definitively known by then, the market resolves to "Other".
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 63%, $506.2K in 24h volume, and $171.8K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
62.5%
No
37.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 63%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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