
+9.8%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$144.6K
Liquidity
$144.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 6%, $231 in 24h volume, and $662.6 in liquidity.
Probability
6%
24h Volume
$231
Liquidity
$662.6
This market asks whether Kraken’s private-company valuation will reach at least $20 billion before the end of June 30, 2026, based on the NPM Price published by Nasdaq Private Market. Kraken is a major crypto exchange, so its valuation can matter as a read on investor appetite for digital-asset businesses and later-stage private tech companies.
The key question is whether Kraken’s private market valuation, as reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC, prints at or above $20 billion on any date from market creation through June 30, 2026. The market does not hinge on headlines or informal estimates; it uses the specific NPM Price, which is published only on trading days and updated the next business day at 1:00 PM ET. If Kraken goes public through an IPO or direct listing before the deadline, the rules also allow the official offer price and subsequent public market capitalization to count in the resolution.
Kraken has long been viewed as one of the most prominent privately held crypto exchanges, but private valuations can move around based on crypto market conditions, growth expectations, and investor demand for late-stage shares. That creates a clear threshold question: can the company’s measured valuation touch $20 billion in the defined window, or does it stay below that level? The market is pricing disagreement over whether Kraken’s private-market marks, or any public-market valuation if it lists, will clear that line before the deadline.
A new NPM print above or below $20 billion would be the most direct driver, since the market resolves from that published data. Any announcement that Kraken has completed an IPO or direct listing could also matter immediately, because the rules switch to official pricing and public-market value once that happens. More broadly, changes in crypto sector sentiment, company-specific financing activity, or a fresh private secondary market valuation could shift expectations if they feed into the NPM Price.
Related markets

+9.8%
24h Vol
$144.6K
Liquidity
$144.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 6% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the NPM Price itself, not just general press coverage, because the market resolves from that specific source of truth. The important cutoff is June 30, 2026, with a possible data-completion grace period through July 4, 2026 if NPM has not yet published all relevant business-day data by July 1 at 1:00 PM ET. It is also worth checking whether Kraken has announced an IPO or direct listing, since the resolution rules explicitly expand to official listing prices and post-listing public market capitalization in that case.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 6%, $231 in 24h volume, and $662.6 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
6%
No
94%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 6%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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