finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
7%
+1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$58K
Liquidity
$159.4K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%, $7.1K in 24h volume, and $82.8 in liquidity.
Probability
50%
24h Volume
$7.1K
Liquidity
$82.8
This market asks whether Lana Del Rey will officially release a new album before the end of 2026. Because album release plans can shift, the main question is not whether music is expected, but whether a qualifying album actually appears on major streaming or download platforms by the deadline. Readers should treat this as a straightforward release-timing question tied to an artist with a long-running, closely watched catalog.
For this market to resolve “Yes,” Lana Del Rey must officially release a new album sometime between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT. The release has to be a newly available album on a recognized platform, not a live recording, and not just a reissue, deluxe edition, compilation, or greatest-hits package unless at least half of the tracks are previously unreleased in any form. The resolution source is primarily official streaming and download services, with Spotify checked first, then Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer if there is any labeling ambiguity.
Lana Del Rey is an artist whose album schedule is often followed closely, so even small signals can leave room for disagreement about timing. The uncertainty here is whether 2026 will bring a fully qualifying album release, or whether any music made available that year will fall short of the market’s definition. That is what the market is pricing: the likelihood of a real, platform-verified album release within the deadline, not just announcements or teases.
An official album announcement with a release date, pre-save page, or store listing would generally push expectations toward “Yes,” especially if it names a full album rather than a single or reissue. By contrast, delays, a shift to singles, or signs that a project is being recut into a deluxe or compilation format could weaken the case for a qualifying release. Because the rules care about the final platform label and track makeup, any release that looks like an alternate edition rather than a new album could still leave the outcome uncertain.
Related markets
+1%
24h Vol
$58K
Liquidity
$159.4K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 50% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is whether Lana Del Rey has a newly released album that is actually available on Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, or Deezer before the deadline. A reader should check the exact release title, the track list, and whether the album contains enough previously unreleased material to meet the market’s 50% threshold if it is a reissue-like release. The resolution date is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM PT, so anything appearing after that point would not count.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 50%, $7.1K in 24h volume, and $82.8 in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including recordings of live events) by the resolution date. Album releases including non-original tracks such as live-versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums, or similar non original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 50%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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