
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $22.9K in 24h volume, and $2.4M in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$22.9K
Liquidity
$2.4M
This market asks whether LeBron James will be the Democratic Party’s official nominee for president in 2028. Because LeBron is best known as an NBA superstar rather than a politician, the question is unusual enough that the main thing to watch is not campaign chatter but what the Democratic Party formally records as its nominee.
The event in question is the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, with resolution tied to whether the named individual wins and accepts that nomination. The market’s deadline is set for 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z, and the source of truth is a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. The description also says that if the party later replaces its nominee before election day, that change will not alter the market’s final result.
The uncertainty here is not about LeBron James’s fame, but about whether a highly unconventional name could ever become the Democratic Party’s formal presidential standard-bearer. Readers may care because nomination rules, delegate votes, withdrawals, and late replacement scenarios can all affect who is officially recognized as the nominee. The market is effectively pricing a very specific political outcome: a formal nomination and acceptance, not just speculation, headlines, or casual mention.
Price would move most if there were official Democratic Party actions that clearly name or rule out LeBron James as the 2028 nominee, such as delegate votes, convention rules, or an accepted nomination statement. Any credible indication that the party’s formal process could elevate him would matter far more than public jokes, endorsements, or social media discussion. Because the resolution depends on official party sources, documents from the convention, the national committee, or other authoritative party records would be the key evidence.
Related markets

-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market resolves, readers should verify who the Democratic Party officially certifies as its presidential nominee and whether that person has accepted the nomination. The most important ambiguity is the word “official”: informal support or media narratives do not count unless they are reflected in party sources. It is also worth checking whether the party changes nominees late in the process, because the market rules say such a replacement does not change the outcome once the relevant nomination event has been resolved.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $22.9K in 24h volume, and $2.4M in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.8%
No
99.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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