Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

What this market is about

The event in question is the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, with resolution tied to whether the named individual wins and accepts that nomination. The market’s deadline is set for 2028-11-07T00:00:00Z, and the source of truth is a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. The description also says that if the party later replaces its nominee before election day, that change will not alter the market’s final result.

Why the market exists

The uncertainty here is not about LeBron James’s fame, but about whether a highly unconventional name could ever become the Democratic Party’s formal presidential standard-bearer. Readers may care because nomination rules, delegate votes, withdrawals, and late replacement scenarios can all affect who is officially recognized as the nominee. The market is effectively pricing a very specific political outcome: a formal nomination and acceptance, not just speculation, headlines, or casual mention.

What can move the price

Price would move most if there were official Democratic Party actions that clearly name or rule out LeBron James as the 2028 nominee, such as delegate votes, convention rules, or an accepted nomination statement. Any credible indication that the party’s formal process could elevate him would matter far more than public jokes, endorsements, or social media discussion. Because the resolution depends on official party sources, documents from the convention, the national committee, or other authoritative party records would be the key evidence.

How to read the current probability