economy
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $17.1K in 24h volume, and $1.1M in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$17.1K
Liquidity
$1.1M
This market asks whether Liz Cheney will be the Democratic Party’s nominee for U.S. president in 2028. It is a narrow, unusual question because Cheney is best known as a former Republican congresswoman, so readers should pay close attention to how the Democratic nomination is actually decided and how the market’s resolution rule is written.
The event at issue is the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, which is the party’s official choice for president heading into the general election. The market resolves “Yes” only if Liz Cheney wins and accepts that nomination, and it resolves “No” otherwise. The deadline shown on the page is Election Day 2028, but the key practical milestone is the Democratic Party’s own nomination process, typically settled through primaries, delegate counts, and the party convention before the general election.
The uncertainty here is less about Cheney’s public profile and more about whether a figure so closely associated with the Republican Party could ever become the Democratic nominee. That makes the market a test of party rules, candidate alignment, and the willingness of delegates and officials to back an unconventional nominee. The contract is also unusual because it specifies a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, so readers are really watching for formal party action rather than media speculation.
Price moves would most likely come from formal, party-specific developments: a declared campaign, endorsement signals from Democratic officials, delegate math in the primaries, or any official nomination at the convention. Because the rules say the market only cares about Cheney winning and accepting the nomination, speculation about running, polling chatter, or a replacement nominee before Election Day matters only if it translates into official party recognition. Any change in the Democratic Party’s nomination procedures, candidate eligibility, or convention outcome could also affect how the market is read.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important thing to verify is the exact wording of the official Democratic Party source used to confirm the nominee, since that is the source of truth for resolution. Readers should watch the party convention, any official nomination vote, and any formal acceptance statement from the named nominee. One important ambiguity in the rules is that a replacement nominee before Election Day does not change the result, so the market is tied to whether Cheney herself wins and accepts the nomination, not whether she is later swapped out or otherwise appears on the final ballot.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $17.1K in 24h volume, and $1.1M in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.8%
No
99.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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