economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $206.8K in 24h volume, and $218.5K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$206.8K
Liquidity
$218.5K
This market asks whether Mario Vizcarra will be the winner of Peru’s 2026 presidential election. It matters because Peru’s next president will be chosen in a national vote that could require a runoff, and the market is tied to the final official outcome rather than early reporting or polling headlines.
The question is simple: will Mario Vizcarra be the candidate who ultimately wins the next Peruvian presidency? The market includes the possibility of a second round, so it will not resolve until the final winner of the election is known, with a hard fallback to "Other" if results are not definitively known by October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is based on the official election result, with ONPE and JNE named as the source of truth if there is any ambiguity.
Mario Vizcarra is a specific name in a race that is still open and can change as Peru’s campaign develops, candidates qualify, and voters make their choices. A market like this is pricing disagreement over whether he can survive the full electoral process and end up as the certified winner, not just whether he remains visible in the race at any one moment.
Official campaign announcements, candidate registration decisions, disqualifications, alliances, and polling shifts can all affect expectations around Vizcarra’s chances. Because the market counts a possible runoff, any development that changes who is likely to make the second round, or who would win in a head-to-head final, can matter. Clear statements from ONPE or JNE about candidate status, the voting process, or the final certified result are especially important.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketReaders should watch the official election calendar, the April 12, 2026 general election date, and any runoff schedule that follows if no candidate wins outright. The key resolution detail is that the market relies on the official Peruvian results from ONPE and JNE, so disputes, provisional counts, or unofficial media calls should not be treated as final. The extra deadline of October 31, 2026 means the market can still resolve to "Other" if the presidency is not definitively settled by then, so certification timing is just as important as vote counting.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $206.8K in 24h volume, and $218.5K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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