economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $20 in 24h volume, and $137K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$20
Liquidity
$137K
This market asks whether Marisol Pérez Tello will win Peru’s next presidential election in 2026. It is tied to a real national vote, so the outcome depends on who is ultimately certified as the winner, including the possibility of a second round.
Peru’s general elections are scheduled for April 12, 2026, and this page focuses on one named candidate: Marisol Pérez Tello. The market resolves to “Yes” only if she is the winner of the next Peruvian presidential election, with any runoff or second-round result counted in that final answer. If the result is not definitively known by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other,” and if there is any ambiguity, the official Peruvian election authorities — the ONPE and the JNE — are the source of truth.
The question matters because Peru’s presidency is decided by a national election that may require a runoff, which can leave the final outcome uncertain for months after the first round. Marisol Pérez Tello is a specific possible contender, and the market is pricing whether she can emerge as the eventual winner rather than simply perform well in the early vote. Readers should treat this as a contest over election mechanics and final certification, not just first-round visibility.
Price can move if Marisol Pérez Tello formally enters the race, is endorsed by a major coalition, or drops out, since those developments change her path to the runoff and to victory. Campaign polling, debates, alliance-building, and any official candidate disqualifications would also matter because Peru’s election can hinge on fragmentation and second-round dynamics. Any official ruling or update from the ONPE or JNE about candidate eligibility, vote counting, or the final certified winner would be especially important here.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketBefore this market resolves, the key things to verify are the official election calendar, whether a second round is required, and the final certified result published by Peru’s ONPE and JNE. The resolution rule is not based on speculation or partial counts; it depends on the officially reported winner as reflected in credible reporting and, if there is any dispute, the government’s election authorities. The deadline also matters: if the winner is still not definitively known by October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other,” so late legal challenges or certification delays could be decisive.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $20 in 24h volume, and $137K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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