economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $8.1K in 24h volume, and $686.1K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$8.1K
Liquidity
$686.1K
This market asks whether Mark Kelly will become the Democratic Party’s 2028 nominee for U.S. president and accept that nomination. It is worth watching because Kelly is a nationally known political figure, but the Democratic nomination is still far from settled and depends on how the party’s nomination process unfolds in 2028.
The question is narrowly defined: will Mark Kelly win and accept the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mark Kelly, the Arizona senator and former astronaut, is the named individual in the title, and the market only resolves “Yes” if he is the official Democratic nominee for president and accepts that nomination. The end date shown is Election Day, November 7, 2028, but the resolution rule also matters: the market uses a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, and if another nominee replaces him before election day, that does not change the outcome under these rules.
The market captures uncertainty about who Democrats will choose in a future presidential cycle and whether Kelly will be the eventual party standard-bearer. A senator with national recognition can be floated as a potential candidate well before the race begins, but nomination politics usually involve many moving parts: endorsements, primary results, delegate math, and whether the person in question actually runs and secures the party’s backing. Readers are essentially weighing Kelly’s profile against a crowded and unpredictable nomination process.
Price can move if Kelly formally enters the race, gains or loses visible support from party leaders, or becomes a leading figure in early primary coverage. Official campaign announcements, delegate counts, debate performances, or changes in the nomination field would all matter because this market resolves based on who the Democratic Party officially nominates and who accepts. Any sign that Kelly is unlikely to run, is not viable in the primaries, or is being overtaken by another candidate would tend to push expectations away from a “Yes” outcome.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important thing to check is the official Democratic Party nomination process, especially the party’s formal nominee announcement and any official acceptance by the candidate. Because the source of truth is a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, readers should pay attention to the party’s convention results, official statements, and any later replacement or withdrawal rules that could create confusion. The deadline on the page is November 7, 2028, but the market’s wording means the key question is who is officially nominated and accepts, not simply who is discussed as a frontrunner.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $8.1K in 24h volume, and $686.1K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
2%
No
98.1%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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