finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
7%
+1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$62.5K
Liquidity
$161.2K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meituan have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $71.6 in 24h volume, and $3.5K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$71.6
Liquidity
$3.5K
This market asks whether Meituan will finish June 2026 with the top coding model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard. It is a straightforward company-vs-company ranking question, but the answer depends on a very specific public benchmark snapshot taken at a fixed time. Because the market resolves from a named leaderboard and a precise check time, the main thing to watch is not just whether Meituan releases a strong model, but whether that model is actually ranked first in the coding category when the leaderboard is consulted.
The question is whether the company Meituan will own the model sitting in first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard’s Coding tab at 12:00 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The market uses the "Text Arena | Coding" leaderboard with style control off, and it resolves to the company of the model ranked number one at that moment. If two models share the same rank, the market breaks the tie using Arena score, including any underlying unrounded values shown in the leaderboard data. If there is still a tie, company names are used in the market’s stated alphabetical tiebreaker order, so the exact owner and exact ranking data on the page matter.
There is uncertainty because coding models often move quickly as companies ship new versions, update weights, or improve benchmark performance, and leaderboard positions can change between one check and the next. Meituan is a recognizable company, but it is not a guaranteed leader in this benchmark space, so the market is really pricing whether it can outpace better-known AI labs and maintain that lead at the specific June 2026 snapshot. Readers may care because this is not about general AI hype; it is about a public, third-party ranking that many people use to compare coding assistants. The disagreement in the market is whether Meituan can get a model to the top of that coding leaderboard, and whether it can still be there at the exact resolution time.
A Meituan model launch, major leaderboard update, or a fresh coding-specialized release could move expectations if it appears to improve rank on the Coding tab. Equally important are moves by other companies: if a rival lab pushes ahead with a stronger coding model, Meituan’s chances fall even if Meituan improves. Since the market resolves from a specific leaderboard snapshot, price can also move on any change in the public ranking methodology, score ties, or the relative position of the top models near the June 30, 2026 check. If Meituan is close to first place, even small leaderboard shifts could matter a lot.
Related markets
+1%
24h Vol
$62.5K
Liquidity
$161.2K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at lmarena.ai, specifically the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" with style control off. Readers should verify the exact model owner shown in first place at the stated check time, along with the rank column and any score details used for tie-breaking. It is also important to watch the resolution rules for availability and ambiguity. If the leaderboard is temporarily unavailable at the check time, the market stays open until it returns; if the page layout or naming changes, the exact leaderboard view named in the rules still controls, so the relevant question is always which company owns the model ranked first under that specific coding leaderboard snapshot.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meituan have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $71.6 in 24h volume, and $3.5K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.1%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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