economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $327.1K in 24h volume, and $259.2K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$327.1K
Liquidity
$259.2K
This market asks whether Mesías Guevara will be elected president of Peru in the 2026 general election. It is worth watching because Peru’s presidential race can be unsettled by coalition shifts, a possible second round, and the official count that ultimately decides the winner.
The question is straightforward: will Mesías Guevara be the listed candidate who wins Peru’s next presidential election, including any runoff if one is needed? Peru’s general election is scheduled for April 12, 2026, and the market uses the final election winner rather than early-round results. If the result is not known by October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other,” so the key date is not only election day but also the deadline for a definitive outcome.
Mesías Guevara is a recognizable Peruvian political figure, but a presidential win depends on whether he can emerge from a crowded field and navigate Peru’s two-round system if no candidate clears the first-round threshold. That creates uncertainty about both his candidacy and his path to victory, which is what this market is pricing. Readers are essentially weighing whether he becomes the official winner announced after the electoral process is complete.
Official announcements about candidacies, alliances, campaign launches, or withdrawals would matter first, because they change whether Guevara is actually positioned to compete for the presidency. Later on, first-round results, runoff qualification, endorsements after the first round, and any legal or electoral rulings from Peru’s authorities could shift expectations quickly. Because the market resolves on the final official winner, any credible signal from the ONPE or JNE about the ballot count, runoff, or final certification would be especially important.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe main source of truth is the official election result from Peru’s National Office of Electoral Processes (ONPE) and, if needed, the National Jury of Elections (JNE), since the rules say ambiguity is settled by those official results. Readers should verify whether Mesías Guevara is actually a confirmed candidate, whether Peru goes to a second round, and whether the official result is certified before the October 31, 2026 fallback deadline. If the election timetable changes or the count is delayed, that deadline becomes especially important because the market can still resolve to “Other” if no definitive result is available by then.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $327.1K in 24h volume, and $259.2K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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