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Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$42.2K
Liquidity
$193.2K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
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Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $27.5B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 94%, $554.1 in 24h volume, and $3.1K in liquidity.
Probability
94%
24h Volume
$554.1
Liquidity
$3.1K
This market asks a narrow but important earnings question: whether Micron will report third-quarter fiscal 2026 DRAM revenue above $27.5 billion in its official company materials. Micron is one of the key memory-chip makers, and DRAM revenue is a closely watched measure of demand, pricing, and product mix in that part of the semiconductor market.
The event is Micron’s fiscal third quarter of 2026, with the result determined only from the company’s official earnings materials and investor presentation, including press releases, investor slides, and, if needed, transcript or recording of the earnings webcast. The market resolves Yes if the reported DRAM revenue is above $27.5 billion; if it is at or below that level, or if the metric is not reported in the quarter’s materials, it resolves No. If Micron does not release the relevant quarterly materials by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market also resolves No.
This market is centered on a specific threshold because companies often report segment revenue in a way that leaves room for interpretation unless the exact number is stated. Micron’s DRAM business matters because it is a core driver of the company’s results and a useful read-through on memory-market conditions, so the question is not just whether revenue was strong, but whether it cleared a very high bar. The uncertainty comes from how much DRAM demand, pricing, and shipment mix will show up in the quarter’s official reporting.
The biggest price movers will be Micron’s own quarterly earnings release, investor presentation, and any earnings webcast language that clarifies DRAM segment revenue. A reported figure above or below $27.5 billion would likely settle the market quickly, while a range would be resolved by its midpoint under the rules. Any sign that the company omits the metric from its earnings materials would matter as well, because the rules say omission leads to No.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$42.2K
Liquidity
$193.2K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 94% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official Micron earnings date for fiscal Q3 2026 and check whether DRAM revenue is stated explicitly in the press release, investor deck, or regulatory filing. The key source of truth is Micron’s own official materials, not later revisions, commentary, or outside summaries. It is also worth checking whether the company reports a range instead of a single figure, since the midpoint would be used, and whether the quarter’s materials are released before the July 31, 2026 deadline.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $27.5B?. The market currently shows a live probability of 94%, $554.1 in 24h volume, and $3.1K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
94%
No
6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 24, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Micron's DRAM revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials and investor presentation, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 94%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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