economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
--
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
24h Vol
$49.9K
Liquidity
$272.3K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $1 in 24h volume, and $10.4K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$1
Liquidity
$10.4K
This market asks whether Microsoft will officially announce that it is acquiring TikTok, merging with TikTok, or taking part in a deal that leads to TikTok being acquired by or merged with Microsoft by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Because the rule turns on an official announcement, the key question is not whether a transaction is rumored or likely, but whether Microsoft or TikTok publicly confirms a qualifying deal by the deadline.
The listed entity is Microsoft, a large U.S. technology company, and the target is TikTok, the short-form video platform owned by ByteDance. For a "Yes" result, the market only needs an official announcement that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired or merged with Microsoft, and the announcement can come from TikTok itself or Microsoft. The description also says a deal involving Microsoft as a partner in the acquisition or merger would count, even if Microsoft is not the sole buyer.
This market centers on a major corporate-event question with a hard deadline and a clear binary outcome: either there is an official qualifying announcement by the cutoff, or there is not. Microsoft and TikTok are both large, closely watched names, so any serious ownership change would matter to users, regulators, and investors alike, but the market is only pricing the chance that such an announcement is made in time. The heavy tilt toward "No" reflects that this would be an unusually large and specific transaction, and the resolution rule requires a formal announcement rather than speculation or informal reporting.
Price can move sharply if Microsoft or TikTok issues a statement about acquisition talks, a merger, a binding agreement, or a deal structure that includes either company. It can also react to credible reporting that directly indicates an official announcement may be coming, since the rules allow a consensus of credible reporting to support resolution if official information is not available. By contrast, generic headlines about TikTok policy, U.S.-China tensions, or corporate strategy would matter less unless they point to a concrete Microsoft-TikTok transaction.
Related markets
--
24h Vol
$49.9K
Liquidity
$272.3K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Read the exact resolution language closely: the market resolves on an official announcement that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Microsoft, and that announcement must arrive by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The most important source of truth is an official statement from Microsoft or TikTok, though the rules also mention credible reporting as a backup standard, so readers should watch for the precise wording of any announcement. One ambiguity to check is whether a broader deal involving Microsoft as a partner still clearly names TikTok and Microsoft in a qualifying acquisition or merger announcement; the rules say it would, but the announcement itself still has to match the described event.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $1 in 24h volume, and $10.4K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.4%
No
99.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
--
24h Vol
$50.7K
Liquidity
$240K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
+5%
24h Vol
$25.5K
Liquidity
$27.9K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View market
-1%
24h Vol
$65.2K
Liquidity
$85.6K
Spread
1%
12/31/2026
View market
+0.3%
24h Vol
$43.2K
Liquidity
$20K
Spread
1%
6/30/2026
View market
+0.5%
24h Vol
$19K
Liquidity
$7.3K
Spread
2%
Live
View market