world
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
1%
-0.6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
24h Vol
$1.5M
Liquidity
$882.4K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketWorld
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $8.7K in 24h volume, and $43.8K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$8.7K
Liquidity
$43.8K
This market asks whether Microsoft will rank as the world’s second-largest company by market value at the June 30, 2026 close. It is a specific snapshot question, so the answer depends on how Microsoft’s share price and the market caps of other giant public companies compare on that date.
The title is about Microsoft, the U.S. software and cloud company, finishing June 30, 2026 as the second-largest company in the world by market cap. The resolution point is market close on that date, not an average over the month or a ranking at any other time. The market description says the outcome will be resolved using a consensus of credible reporting, so readers should pay attention to how the ranking is being framed and whether the same company appears second across the accepted sources.
The uncertainty comes from the fact that market-cap rankings among the world’s biggest companies can change quickly, especially when a few megacap stocks move in different directions. Microsoft has spent long periods near the top of global rankings, but it is competing with other enormous firms whose valuations can overtake it with even modest price moves. The disagreement here is less about Microsoft’s identity than about whether it can hold the number-two spot on a very specific date.
Movements in Microsoft’s own share price will matter most, but changes in the valuations of the companies above and below it can matter just as much. Earnings reports, guidance updates, major cloud or AI announcements, large buybacks, or broad market swings can all change the ranking by June 30. Because the market resolves on a single closing snapshot, even a late rally or selloff near the deadline could determine the outcome.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.6%
24h Vol
$1.5M
Liquidity
$882.4K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketReaders should check which companies are being counted in the same global market-cap universe and whether the source treats the ranking as the closing value on June 30, 2026. The key details to verify are the exact cutoff time, the accepted reporting standard, and whether any corporate actions or market holidays affect the closing snapshot. If there is ambiguity in how “second-largest company in the world by market cap” is defined, that is the main thing that could affect resolution.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $8.7K in 24h volume, and $43.8K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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