finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
7%
+1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$62.5K
Liquidity
$161.2K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Mistral have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $632.5 in 24h volume, and $2.3K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$632.5
Liquidity
$2.3K
This market asks whether Mistral will be the company with the top coding model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of June 2026. It is a narrow, leaderboard-based question, so the important issue is not general hype around coding AI, but which company’s model is ranked first on the specific Coding tab at the check time.
The title focuses on Mistral, the French AI company known for its open and proprietary language models, and asks whether it will own the best coding model by the market’s resolution date. According to the rules, the outcome is determined by the company whose model is ranked first in the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard’s “Text Arena | Coding” view with style control off, checked on June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If two models are tied on rank, the market uses the underlying Arena score, and if a tie still remains, the listed company name is used as the final tiebreaker.
This market exists because coding-model rankings can change as companies release new models, update weights, or improve benchmark performance before the June 2026 cutoff. Mistral is a plausible contender in the coding-model race, but it faces competition from larger frontier labs and fast-moving code-focused systems, so the question is whether it can finish first on the exact leaderboard that matters here. The market is pricing disagreement about both product quality and timing: it is not enough for Mistral to have a strong model at some point, it has to be the one sitting in first place when the leaderboard is checked.
The price can move if Mistral announces or ships a new coding model, if the Chatbot Arena Coding leaderboard updates in a way that lifts or lowers Mistral’s rank, or if a competing company overtakes the top spot. Changes to model availability on the leaderboard, scoring revisions, or a tie that shifts on exact Arena score could also matter because the rules depend on the leaderboard’s ordering at a single check time. Since only the top-ranked company counts, even small rank changes among the leading models can change the market’s direction.
Related markets
+1%
24h Vol
$62.5K
Liquidity
$161.2K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, readers should verify the exact leaderboard page, the “Text Arena | Coding” tab, and that style control is off, because those details are part of the market definition. The key check time is June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, and the market says it will use the first available leaderboard snapshot after that if the source is temporarily offline. If the leaderboard disappears or the ranking format changes, the market description’s fallback rules and tiebreakers become important, so the final result depends on the source of truth specified in the contract rather than on any outside commentary.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Mistral have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $632.5 in 24h volume, and $2.3K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
--
24h Vol
$803.2K
Liquidity
$324K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
+0.5%
24h Vol
$56.4K
Liquidity
$57.1K
Spread
2%
6/30/2026
View market
+7.9%
24h Vol
$31.9K
Liquidity
$14.3K
Spread
1%
6/15/2026
View market-2.5%
24h Vol
$19K
Liquidity
$6.3K
Spread
1%
Live
View market+1.1%
24h Vol
$25.4K
Liquidity
$46.4K
Spread
0%
12/31/2027
View market