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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.2M
Liquidity
$2.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $1.8K in 24h volume, and $7.7K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$1.8K
Liquidity
$7.7K
This market asks whether the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers will rise by 0.7% in May 2026 on a seasonally adjusted, one-month basis. It is worth watching because the BLS CPI release is one of the main official reads on monthly inflation, and a 0.7% increase would be a relatively strong print by recent standards.
The question is narrowly defined: will the Bureau of Labor Statistics report a 0.7% month-over-month increase in seasonally adjusted CPI-U for May 2026? The result will be taken from the BLS Consumer Price Index report scheduled for June 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET, and the market resolves to the one-decimal-place figure published by BLS, not to any estimate or alternative inflation measure.
Readers care because CPI is the official monthly inflation benchmark used across economics, policy, and financial discussions, and even a tenth of a percentage point can change the interpretation of the report. This market is specifically about whether May’s CPI-U lands exactly at 0.7%, so the disagreement is not about whether inflation is high or low in general, but about one precise monthly reading that could be moved by energy, shelter, food, or other components.
The price will move most on the final BLS CPI release itself, especially if the published monthly change is near 0.7% or if earlier expectations imply a print that could round to that level. Any official delay, revision issue, or clarification from BLS could also matter because the rules say the market uses the scheduled release, but if that is unavailable it may roll to the next CPI report or the most recent prior month with data.
The current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$1.2M
Liquidity
$2.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketBefore resolution, the key thing to verify is the official BLS CPI-U release for May 2026 and the exact one-month percent change reported to one decimal place. Readers should check the release date and time, because the market points to the BLS news release as the source of truth and includes a fallback if the data are not published on schedule. The main ambiguity risk is simple but important: the market settles on the published CPI-U figure, so outside estimates, core inflation, or unrounded values do not decide it.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $1.8K in 24h volume, and $7.7K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
2.7%
No
97.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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