
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $3.2K in 24h volume, and $5.8K in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$3.2K
Liquidity
$5.8K
This market asks whether the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report a 0.8% month-over-month increase in the seasonally adjusted CPI-U for May 2026. It is worth watching because that single monthly reading is a clean snapshot of how fast consumer prices are moving, and 0.8% would be a notably strong one-month gain by the standards of the CPI series.
The question is narrowly tied to the BLS Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, or CPI-U, for May 2026. The market resolves to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted CPI-U, published to one decimal place in the official monthly CPI report scheduled for June 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. If BLS does not publish on that date, the market uses the next scheduled CPI release, and if still unavailable by then it falls back to the most recent month with available data.
There is uncertainty because monthly inflation can vary with energy prices, shelter, services, and other components, and the final BLS figure can differ from what observers expect before release. Traders and readers care about whether the CPI-U will land exactly at 0.8%, since that is a precise threshold rather than a broad range, and the market is effectively pricing disagreement about a specific official print. The low price on “Yes” suggests that participants think a 0.8% monthly increase is unlikely, but the settlement will depend only on the BLS number, not on forecasts or headlines.
The market will move most on anything that changes expectations for the May CPI-U release, such as commentary on gasoline, food, shelter, used cars, or other large CPI categories as the report date approaches. Because the outcome is an exact one-month percentage change rounded to one decimal place, even a small shift in anticipated inflation can matter if it changes the chance of landing on 0.8% versus 0.7% or 0.9%. The biggest move will come from the BLS publication itself, since that is the official source used to settle the market.
Related markets

-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the June 10 release, readers should verify the official BLS CPI news release and look specifically at the seasonally adjusted CPI-U month-over-month change for May 2026. The key detail is precision: the market resolves using the one-decimal-place figure reported by BLS, so a published 0.8% is a Yes and anything else is not. If the release is delayed, the fallback timing described in the market rules matters more than outside commentary, because settlement follows the official publication schedule and figures only.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $3.2K in 24h volume, and $5.8K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
2%
No
98%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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