finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
7%
+1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$62.5K
Liquidity
$161.2K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $671 in 24h volume, and $4.9K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$671
Liquidity
$4.9K
This market asks a simple but specific question: by the end of June 2026, will Moonshot be the company with the top-ranked coding model on Chatbot Arena’s Coding leaderboard? It is a comparison market, so the result depends less on headlines and more on which company’s model is sitting in first place at the exact check time.
The reference point is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at lmarena.ai, specifically the "Text Arena | Coding" table with style control off. On June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, the market will look at the Rank column and award the outcome to the company whose model is in first place; if ranks tie, the market uses Arena score, then the granular underlying score, and finally company-name order as a last tiebreaker. Moonshot here refers to the company behind the model being evaluated, not a general product category.
Coding benchmarks can change quickly because model quality, leaderboard methodology, and new releases can all shift the order of companies over time. Moonshot competes against other AI labs and model makers that may also improve their coding systems before the June 2026 cutoff, so there is real uncertainty about who will sit at the top on the check date.
A new Moonshot model release, an update to an existing coding model, or a leaderboard methodology change that affects the Coding ranking could all alter the market’s outlook. Strong showing by a rival company’s coding model would push the expected winner away from Moonshot, while a Moonshot model rising to first place on the Coding table would move the market in the opposite direction. Because the market is tied to a single leaderboard snapshot, even small rank changes near the deadline matter.
The current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
+1%
24h Vol
$62.5K
Liquidity
$161.2K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe most important thing to verify is the exact leaderboard page and rule set: the market resolves from the Chatbot Arena "Text Arena | Coding" tab with style control off, not from a generic model ranking or a different benchmark. Readers should also check the timestamp carefully, since the outcome is based on the table at June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, with tie-breaking rules that go beyond the visible rank number. If the leaderboard is unavailable at that moment, the market stays open until it returns, so the final resolution may depend on the first valid check after the site comes back online.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $671 in 24h volume, and $4.9K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.7%
No
99.3%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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