culture
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$51.1K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $3.7K in 24h volume, and $7.6K in liquidity.
Probability
100%
24h Volume
$3.7K
Liquidity
$7.6K
This market asks whether MrBeast’s main YouTube channel will reach 500 million subscribers by June 30, 2026. It is a straightforward milestone watch on one of the platform’s biggest creator channels, so the key question is whether subscriber growth can keep pace with an unusually high target before the deadline.
The resolution is tied to the MrBeast YouTube channel, which is the primary source of truth here, with credible reporting as a fallback if needed. To settle “Yes,” the channel must show 500 million subscribers or more by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise it resolves “No.” Because the title sets a very large round-number goal, the exact subscriber count on the channel at the cutoff matters more than general popularity or views.
MrBeast is one of the most watched creators on YouTube, and subscriber milestones at this scale are rare enough to draw attention well beyond the creator economy. The uncertainty is not about whether the channel is famous, but whether it can cross a specific numerical threshold before a fixed date, which can be affected by the pace of audience growth, upload cadence, and how close the channel already is to the target. That makes the market about a concrete public milestone rather than a vague popularity question.
The biggest price moves would come from changes in the channel’s live subscriber count, especially if it gets visibly closer to or further from 500 million. Major new uploads, high-profile collaborations, or especially viral releases can speed up subscriber gains, while a slower posting period can make the deadline look tighter. Because the market is already very one-sided, even small updates in public subscriber counts or credible references to the channel’s current total could matter at the margin.
The current market price implies roughly a 100% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$126.9K
Liquidity
$51.1K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketBefore the deadline, readers should check the subscriber count shown on the official MrBeast YouTube channel and confirm that it is the main channel, not a secondary brand or clipped upload account. The important cutoff is June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, so the final count near that time is what matters, not earlier milestones. If the displayed count is close, it is worth watching for any ambiguity in whether YouTube’s public subscriber number updates in time for the resolution window.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30?. The market currently shows a live probability of 100%, $3.7K in 24h volume, and $7.6K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
99.5%
No
0.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of subscribers by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) or a consensus of credible reporting.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 100%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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