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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$538.5K
Liquidity
$257.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 6%, $2.7K in 24h volume, and $666.8 in liquidity.
Probability
6%
24h Volume
$2.7K
Liquidity
$666.8
This market asks whether NVIDIA’s stock will trade down to a low of $160 or below at any point during June 2026, using minute-by-minute price data from the regular U.S. trading session. It is a closely watched threshold because NVIDIA is a large, heavily traded semiconductor company, so even a brief move to that level would be enough to settle the market in the affirmative.
The event is tied to NVIDIA (ticker NVDA) and the question is specific: will any 1-minute candle in June 2026 show a final low price at or below $160 during normal market hours? The market resolves from Pyth’s NVDA/USD price feed, and only regular-session trading counts; pre-market and after-hours moves do not. The end of the resolution window is June 30, 2026 at the close of U.S. trading, with the market itself ending shortly after that in UTC terms.
A level like $160 matters because it is a concrete price threshold, not a vague direction call, so small intraday swings can change the outcome. Traders may disagree on whether NVIDIA’s shares will ever briefly touch that line over the month, especially given how fast large-cap tech names can move in response to earnings expectations, sector sentiment, or broader market volatility. The current market setup shows the ‘Yes’ side as the less favored outcome, which suggests participants think a drop to that level is possible but not the base case.
The main drivers here are NVIDIA-specific earnings, guidance, product-cycle expectations, and any company filing or corporate action that could affect the share price or the split-adjusted reference level. Broader moves in chip stocks, AI-related names, and the Nasdaq can also push NVDA toward or away from the threshold, especially if the stock gaps lower or sells off sharply during regular hours. Because the rule looks only at the low of each 1-minute candle, even a short-lived intraday dip — not a close below $160 — would be enough to decide the market.
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24h Vol
$538.5K
Liquidity
$257.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 6% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before June ends, the key things to verify are the exact threshold, the regular-session-only rule, and the fact that Pyth’s published 1-minute ‘Low’ values control settlement. Readers should also watch for any stock split or reverse split, since the market says the target will be adjusted proportionally and resolved on split-adjusted Pyth data. The main ambiguity risk is not the ticker or the month, but whether an intraday low during normal trading hours ever prints at or below $160 on the source chart.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June?. The market currently shows a live probability of 6%, $2.7K in 24h volume, and $666.8 in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
6.4%
No
93.7%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during June 2026, any 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 6%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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