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Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$52K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?. The market currently shows a live probability of 99%, $3.5K in 24h volume, and $4.8K in liquidity.
Probability
99%
24h Volume
$3.5K
Liquidity
$4.8K
This market asks whether the film "Obsession" will land its fourth-weekend domestic box office in a narrow band: between $24 million and $27 million for the June 5–7 weekend. It is worth watching because the answer depends on a specific final reporting source, and even small revisions in box office tallies can change how the market resolves.
The event here is the reported fourth-weekend gross for "Obsession," using the 3-day weekend figures listed on the movie’s The Numbers box office page. Resolution is tied to the final, non-estimate weekend number for June 5–7, and the market will count Thursday previews as part of that 3-day weekend if The Numbers includes them. If the figure lands exactly on a bracket boundary, the market resolves to the higher range.
This market is pricing uncertainty about where the film will end up in a very specific weekend box office band, not whether it will simply perform well or poorly. Because the range is tight, the question is whether final domestic grosses will settle inside that $24 million to $27 million window after official reporting is complete. The title’s wording also leaves some room for confusion about what “domestic” means, so the rules matter more than casual assumptions.
The price can move if The Numbers updates its weekend total, especially if the reported gross shifts closer to, or farther from, the $24 million and $27 million cutoffs. Changes in the companion box office sources named in the rules, such as Box Office Mojo and The Numbers confirming final figures, can also matter if there is any estimate-versus-final ambiguity. Because the market is already leaning strongly toward Yes, any sign that the final reported total will fall outside the bracket could move it noticeably.
The current market price implies roughly a 99% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
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24h Vol
$159.9K
Liquidity
$52K
Spread
0%
6/9/2026
View marketReaders should check the final 3-day weekend figure for June 5–7 on The Numbers, since that is the stated source of truth. If the numbers are still marked as studio estimates, the market stays open until both The Numbers and Box Office Mojo confirm final figures, so the distinction between preliminary and final reporting is important. If no final data appears by June 14, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the rules say another credible source will be chosen, so that deadline is the backup resolution frame to watch.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?. The market currently shows a live probability of 99%, $3.5K in 24h volume, and $4.8K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
98.9%
No
1.2%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 8, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to how much "Obsession" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 5 - June 7) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 99%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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